Major Changes Seem Inevitable in War Torn Syria
Mass protests continue to rage in Idlib, Syria six months on. The people are determined to rid themselves of the rule of HTS strongman Abu Muhammad Jolani. The situation in the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch territories is quieter but not by much. Unknown assailants attacked the Hukumah Muaqata government offices in Azaz today. Anti-Turkish sentiment is running high in those territories after the unrest that took place on both sides of the Turkish-Syrian border less than two weeks ago. Turkish residents are blaming Syrians for tanking their economy and stealing their jobs for a lower wage rate while bringing insecurity with them. While on the Syrian side they are increasingly uncomfortable with what they say is Turkish interference beyond what they see as necessary.
As if all of that was not enough, the Turkish President Erdogan said this week, “There is no reason to not reestablish ties with Syria. We have no intention to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs”. This did not go down well with Syrians at all. With all of the problems and divisions Syrians face there is no question in their minds that Assad is and always will be the real threat and that there can be no reconciliation with him.
All of this has created a toxic mix wherein northern Syrian could detonate at any time and a lack of credible leadership in the Euphrates Shield/Olive Branch areas could make the extinguishing of potential conflicts close to impossible to put out.
As for the Idlib areas, no one has more enemies than Jolani and he is only holding on due to his ability to financially appease certain entities and the brutality of his security forces. But is that expected to continue indefinitely? And what would an increasingly likely Russia friendly Trump Whitehouse in Washington spell for the Syrian revolution?
Predicting what would come next is virtually impossible. However one thing seems clear: the current status quo is not sustainable.
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